Philosophy Discussion Forums | A Humans-Only Club for Open-Minded Discussion & Debate

[Lagayascienza]

True. If wages were higher and if the wealthy and their multi-national corporations were forced to pay their fair share of tax, then families would feel economically able to have more children and immigration would be unnecessary. As it is in Australia, for example, all we can do, if we don't want immigration, is to wait for the elderly cohorts to die off. But that won't work in the long term unless fertility rates are raised to at least replacement level. And that won't happen unless we provide the economic and social conditions in which young people feel able to have more kids. The fertility rate in Australia is only 1.6. Well below replacement level. When both parents have to work just to pay rent and buy food with no hope of ever getting ahead they are not going to have an average of 2.1 children and so raise fertility rates to replacement level. In these circumstances, the only option is to continue importing younger, working age people. Immigration.

[Pattern-chaser]

This is not about immigration to replace an otherwise diminishing populace.

Agreed.

Financially some countries may need immigration, but the disparity where there are too many old people is surely self resolving ~ by death. You just have to wait a decade or so.

To both comments: my point is that some countries require immigrants because the current populations cannot afford the cost of their immediate predecessors' pensions. So waiting for us old people to die doesn't solve the problem. The problem is that governments set up pension schemes where the current generation of workers pay the pension of the previous generation. They *should* have done it so that each generation pays for its own pension, but that would've cost more up front, so we find ourselves where we are today. Hence my original comment:

Many modern countries find themselves with a large and ageing population, who they can't afford to care for. Therefore, they need immigrants to come, work, pay tax, and thereby pay for the care and welfare of the old and exhausted workers who can no longer contribute as they once did. Consider Japan...

N.B. I do not suggest this is the only reason for immigration, only *one* reason.

Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[Lagayascienza]

Many people do pay for their pensions upfront these days. In Australia, it is compulsory to invest a proportion of earnings in a superannuation fund that cannot be touched until retirement. People who retire with superannuation balances above a certain limit do not qualify for a government pension. That is fair. However, those who retire with a big superannuation nest-egg are in the minority and most retirees must rely partly on a government part-pension to top up monthly payments from their superannuation fund.

With an aging population and a fertility rate of only 1.6, pensions, health care, education and social security programs would be totally unaffordable without the importation of young working age people to broaden the tax base. But large scale immigration brings its own problems and does not address the causes of our low fertility rate which I touched on above.

[amorphos_ii]

Patter-chaser

To both comments: my point is that some countries require immigrants because the current populations cannot afford the cost of their immediate predecessors' pensions. So waiting for us old people to die doesn't solve the problem. The problem is that governments set up pension schemes where the current generation of workers pay the pension of the previous generation. They *should* have done it so that each generation pays for its own pension, but that would've cost more up front, so we find ourselves where we are today.

So get European immigrants and not Muslims! Secondly it is clear that the rich need to pay more tax! You know what we are all walking into; there are already factories churning out AI tractors, tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs to AI and robots, who’s going to pay for UBI when ordinary people are not able to pay tax?
It is not immigration I am against, its monsters who grab our [mostly white] children off the streets while the police turn a blind eye. All under the gaze of the Tories – because they were in power.

[Sy Borg]

Many people do pay for their pensions upfront these days. In Australia, it is compulsory to invest a proportion of earnings in a superannuation fund that cannot be touched until retirement. People who retire with superannuation balances above a certain limit do not qualify for a government pension. That is fair. However, those who retire with a big superannuation nest-egg are in the minority and most retirees must rely partly on a government part-pension to top up monthly payments from their superannuation fund.

With an aging population and a fertility rate of only 1.6, pensions, health care, education and social security programs would be totally unaffordable without the importation of young working age people to broaden the tax base. But large scale immigration brings its own problems and does not address the causes of our low fertility rate which I touched on above.

And world record immigration levels at a time when there was a historic shortage of housing is simply terrible tactics. Ye, we need enough new people to make up for the low birth rate but poorly timed mass immigration makes the problem worse. Mass immigration pumps housing prices due to increased demand, and that makes housing less unaffordable. At the same time, mass immigration satisfies demand for workers, which keeps wages down. The upshot is young people can't set themselves up to have a family, lowering the birth rate.

[Lagayascienza]

So, isn't the answer to get our fertility rate up to 2.1 so we won't need further immigration. How can that be achieved?

[Sy Borg]

So, isn't the answer to get our fertility rate up to 2.1 so we won't need further immigration. How can that be achieved?

The other alternative is to only let in as many extra people as is needed to make up the shortfall. Net zero migration. Do we want millions of extra people or would we rather boost the education and productivity of our existing people? Maybe return universities to seeking excellence rather than paid-for degrees for foreign students?

[Pattern-chaser]

Patter-chaser

To both comments: my point is that some countries require immigrants because the current populations cannot afford the cost of their immediate predecessors' pensions. So waiting for us old people to die doesn't solve the problem. The problem is that governments set up pension schemes where the current generation of workers pay the pension of the previous generation. They *should* have done it so that each generation pays for its own pension, but that would've cost more up front, so we find ourselves where we are today.

So get European immigrants and not Muslims! Secondly it is clear that the rich need to pay more tax!

Your first suggestion appears racist, but for no apparent reason...

That the rich should pay more tax is not in dispute (with me, at least).

[Good_Egg]

Is it good to borrow to maintain a comfortable lifestyle ?
- This year borrow money to pay for extra consumption.
- Next year borrow more again to pay the interest plus this year's extra consumption
- Year after borrow more to pay the larger compounded interest plus this year's extra consumption
Etc

Or is that buying short-term comfort at the expense of long-term disaster ? Unsustainable ? Is it better to live within one's means ?

(Not saying anything against borrowing to invest or borrowing to smooth out income fluctuations).

When a population is rising (births exceeding replacement) then labour is cheap but assets such as housing are expensive (because supply and demand). When population is falling (births below replacement) then labour is expensive (proportionately fewer working-age people to support the elderly) but assets such as housing are cheaper.

Immigration that increases every year to maintain the low cost of labour is the mathematical equivalent of borrowing money to finance ongoing consumption. When the immigrant generation get older you'll need even more immigrants....

[Lagayascienza]

Exactly. Immigration does not address the real problem and it brings its own suite problems. To fix the problems we need to get fertility rates up to replacement level and then cut immigration. And to get fertility rates up to replacement level governments are going to have address the socio-economic causes of low fertility rates.

[amorphos_ii]

As to RACISM, I am not prejudice against people genes, that would be ridiculous, as you know there is no such thing as ‘race’. I am definitely prejudice against people who come here and gang rape our children, thousands of them. You thing their families and friends don’t know and support the people doing that! 50 towns and cities with all those involved including those who used/raped the children, that’s a large number, too much to untangle. Consider if you had freedom of movement in Israel and everyone stop fighting and gave each other a big wet kiss on the bottom, would that work? No of course not, the Muslims would torture, rape and kill as many as they can, and yet that’s exactly the situation we have here; enemies! The Africans aren’t much better either, I have seen first hand the evil they can do. Yes it is not all of them, ergo we probably just need to remove a percentage, say from 17% down to about 8% [100% of Muslims though], such that the situation is manageable.

To the ECONOMICS; we had very low cost housing before the Tories privatised council housing just to get the populist vote. Most of pensioners costs are in rent and energy! I knew people who were paying £3 per week back in the day, so now make recalculations upon the costs, and contrast those against what they could have been if the capitalist failed experiment had not made everything cost so much more!