Admiral usher wrote:I don't understand how evolution works but I have a notion of my own.
...Lets say species x is susceptible to damage from heat. The climate gets hotter; the species begins to die off. Now among the species there are creatures with differences, namely a heat gene that prevents them from dying off. Of course this all takes a long time. So what we now have is a creature which is slightly different.
Okay, I was with you up until that last line. Why would what we have after a long time be inherently different?
Presumably, before the changes that brought increased heat, there were individuals that had the heat gene that gives them increased tolerance, otherwise they would not have been around to survive. These individuals pass this gene on to a certain percentage of their children. As the heat becomes more and more of a problem, those individuals with this gene have an advantage that allows them to survive in greater numbers--so more of this gene will tend to be passed on, but there will continue to be those without the gene in the mix. It seems to me, since the gene is obviously a recessive gene (else there would be a lot of these types to begin with) if the heat ever goes away, so will the preponderance of the gene in the gene pool.
If the heat becomes so intense that those without the gene cannot survive at all, then most of the children will die. Keep in mind that the people will travel to a more favorable climate, or change their customs to ease the difficulties with the heat before simply allowing the majority of their members to die off. So for the conditions to be so horrible that those without the gene die; so will most of the children with the gene. The gene isn't a magic pill, its a slightly favorable survivability trend. Those with it won't need quite as much water, perhaps. They'll remain stronger and healthier. But if it's bad enough to kill all of the ones without the gene, those with it will be in very bad shape as well.
If we assume that this does happen, then presumably the gene could be breed out so that only heat tolerant individuals remain. Presumably, however, the heat tolerant ones might be less favorably conditioned to the cold. So if the environment ever turns cold again, they will be at a severe disadvantage, because they won't have any individuals with a higher tolerance to the cold.
This is why, generally speaking, nature is resistant to creating a system whereby all the individuals with a specific type of gene can be breed out of the population. It would likely do more harm to long-term survivability than it did good.
Because of this, the outer appearance of the population may change--but the inner potential for tolerance to the cold would most likely remain in virtually any population that survived the heat change without it being a near extinction event for that population.
This situation does not seem to promote evolutionary change of a non-cataclysmic nature.
Admiral usher wrote: Wouldn't be nice if we could speed up the evolutionary process (if there is one) and put a few hundred million years into a time sequence of years,months weeks and hours.
Actually, in a sense, we can do this... breeders perform artificial selection all the time. Animals have two tendencies. 1) is that they pay no attention to certain differences in characteristics. So a little toy poodle will sniff around a Great Dane and if they get a chance they'll copulate. When they do the dog that results will look like neither type of dog. But breeders can select for specific characteristics doing in a relatively few generations what would be impossible to do over may eons of natural breeding. 2) Other animals have a tendency to avoid animals that are different. So an albino wolf (or even one that has fur that is darker than the rest of the pack)will be generally be avoided by other wolves. Again, this tends to limit the likelihood that other "uncharacteristic" wolves will be born. And again, artificial selection can breed these animals, when nature would not. Thus, we have a wide range of races in domestic animals such as dogs and cats. Similarly, hawks have been breed for certain characteristics for several thousands of years, and so forth.
Yet, over all of these many centuries of artificial breeding, there has never been a new species of animals that has been breed out of their dogness or catness or hawkness.
Furthermore, while dog races come in a wide range of sizes and shapes, there seems to be distinct limit, beyond which these animals cannot go any further. Hawks have been breed for size and speed for centuries--but they are no bigger now than they were many centuries ago. And if the larger hawks are released into the wild, their offspring quickly revert to the smaller sizes.
The characteristics of a species are a bit like a rubber band. We can stretch the boundaries and twist the rubber band into odd shapes, but we can't go beyond what the rubber band can endure or it will break. And if we release the pressure on the rubber band, it will return to its original shape.
In my opinion, this elasticity of the species is designed to allow it to survive changes in the environment that make having one shape an advantage over another--not to transform the species into something other than what it is.
Admiral usher wrote: ...as far as the peppered moths are concerned I don't think that this is a case of evolution but gives a fairly good idea about how it might work.
Not really. If you look closely at the actual case, it is an example of how "evolutionary proof" is often deeply flawed. It does not demonstrate evolution--it demonstrates the elastic stability that I've been talking about.
In this case, there was no actual change in the moths at all. Presumably, the percentage of dark moths increased for a time (during times of higher pollution concentration), but when pollution decreased in later years the percentage of dark moths declined again. And even here the data is flawed, since the records actually show many inconsistencies--for example, in many cases the population percentages changed before the discoloration on the trees. And in some areas the trend was actually the reverse--pollution causing increases in the lighter moths--both suggest that it wasn't the discoloration of the trees that caused the changes in the moth populations. And so we cannot assume that it is evidence of evolution.