- July 12th, 2024, 4:36 pm
#465071
Hello to you, Empiricist-Bruno.
It is a good idea, unfortunately not new - there's currently a political group in Ukraine revolving around an ex president's office spokesman named Arestovych who's proposed renaming Ukraine to Kievan Rus'/Rus-Ukraine [done] alone and also as a part of his plan named "The Fifth Project" [for Ukraine], if you do google auto translate this page focus .ua/uk/politics/529505-rus-ukraina-pyatyy-proekt-arestovicha remove the space between focus and ua, I'm sorry for posting an external link but I'm not sure if there are any other text format sources for this) you can read most of the stuff about it, there's no point for me to repeat the article. There have been ideas similar to it in the past but they never gained much attention.
Main points being that both Ukraine and Russia's roots can be traced back to that state so historically Ukraine would claim the birth center of the Slavic region (Николай Cергеевич Трубецкой. К украинской проблеме, 1927, Russian researcher), that people of territories that are now Ukraine were active participants in both Russian Empire and Soviet Union and that instead of embracing the role of the victim of the regimes, Ukraine should acknowledge its part in making of these and claim it (Khruschev, Brezhnev, etc.. There are coherent arguments against this worldview, but then it comes down to what role do the Ukrainians want for Ukraine and whether you view these people as Ukrainians who built the empire or as people of Ukrainian descent who were forced to give up their identity to build the empire), breaking the Karpman's triangle of victim (Ukraine) - abuser (Russia) - rescuer (West) mentality and becoming its own grand political player, being Kievan Rus' also possibly absorbing Russia later on.
Within Ukraine however that idea wasn't widely accepted for a variety of reasons, some of them being an idea that Ukraine should stay Ukraine and Ukrainian identity should be protected at all costs, that once Ukraine joins NATO all of their defense-wise worries will go away and they wouldn't have to take a responsibility of carrying all that burden of being politics-wise important country on their shoulders, maybe a general lack of understanding of the idea too.
Regarding non long-term political goals in your following paragraphs, Ukraine is not and will not be an existential threat to Russia in any case for as long as Ukrainians claim their goal to free their county and not go farther. There have already been major retreats of Russian forces throughout this whole thing on the Ukrainian territory [so to worry about Ukraine freeing the rest of its territory is nonsense], there have been Russian legion raids actually within! Russian territory, plus drone/missile targeting of Russian oil production places, strikes on Crimea [so to worry about any military action, planned out or accident done within Russia is nonsense as well]. Russian sovereignty is under no threat and the risk of usage of nuclear threats in any shape or form is minimal.
Speaking about the battlefield, the Z sign is not something universal for Russians so they could easily change it any time, if this strategy was beneficial for Ukraine then I think Ukraine would've already tried this. I have to add that, not being an expert on modern warfare, but it would seem artillery, aviation strikes, etc. play a much bigger role in terms of causing casualties than face to face combat in situations where one side isn't actively raiding another (when the battlefield is kind of stuck for time being), and when one side is actively advancing I don't think these signs would cause too much confusion as it's clear for you in which direction are your troops and in which direction are your enemies, for example when you are defending a village, so it's just not worth the effort.
At last, it's hard to predict what could go wrong with this approach, there have to be some issues to be looked into but they are unclear to me. A much tougher question is how do you get to the point when something gets wrong with this approach, as in, how do you get yourself into the position in which you are already inside that scenario. This plan requires restructuring the political worldview of the country in the middle of the war, educating Ukrainian citizens as to why it is happening, inevitably dealing with psy-ops (for sure by Russians and possibly by parties within Ukraine hoping to claim power for themselves trying to de-stabilize current government and gain political points for themselves) targeting Ukrainians claiming that this is the beginning of surrender to Russia or anything of this kind.
So yes, the plan is great, seemingly there's nothing wrong when this is done, but to do it would be an achievement of truly incredible historical significance for Ukraine and possibly the world.