Philosophy Discussion Forums

Stop rationalising. This disaster is unprecedented on a number of levels. It was predicted in the Garnaut Report (disregarded) and such events were predicted as a result of climate change half a century ago.

Take away your tribal right wing thinking and we just have physics. Add carbon to the air and it becomes more insulating and heats up. Thus, current events were predictable and predicted, and statistics bear this out.

Another tribal issue is the subject of this thread, but when you take away the BS, it's simple. If you have very large numbers of guns scattered around societies, coupled with loose regulations, then people will tend to use the said guns on each other. Again, predictable, predicted and statistics bear it out.

How about abortion? Logically, the nervous system is not formed until nine weeks and remains in a a relatively primitive state for a while after that. And, of course, given that the capacity to feel is not all that important to us (hence our overeating of the meat of intelligent mammals and birds), the question is what is lost with abortion up to mid term. Only a potential. Given that we have 7.8 billion realised human potentials, perhaps about six billion too many for sustainability - the capacity to pass a better standard of life to the next generation - it only matters to the individuals concerned.

How about another touchstone right wing issue? Tax free status of religions. The right, of course, jealously guards this lurk. Most non-billionaire recipients of government largesse are forced to explain in detail how they use the money, but it's given the churches via tax breaks, no questions asked. Why not have churches pay tax and compete with other NGOs for charity grants? If they are good enough, they gain the grants.

Of course Australia's weather has changed dramatically. GE, your comment is hilarious. I am living in it. It is INTENSE!

G. E. Morton wrote: 'Australia's climate this year is not perceptibly different from last year, or the year before, or for the prior 10 years'.

This is wrong.

From Australia's Bureau of Meteorology:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

'Australia's warmest year on record; marked by severe, protracted drought

2019 was Australia's warmest year on record. Australia's area-averaged mean temperature for 2019 was 1.52 °C above the 1961–1990 average, well above the old record: +1.33 °C in 2013. Mean maximum temperatures were the warmest on record at 2.09 °C above average, also well above the previous record, which was +1.59 °C in 2013. Mean minimum temperatures were 0.95 °C above average, the sixth-warmest on record. The national temperature dataset commences in 1910.

2019 Australian mean temperature decile map
2019 annual mean temperatures compared to historical temperature observations. See also maxima and minima.
The mean temperature for the 10 years from 2010 to 2019 was the highest on record, at 0.86 °C above average, and 0.31 °C warmer than the 10 years 2000–2009. All the years since 2013 have been amongst the ten warmest on record for Australia. Of the ten warmest years, only one (1998) occurred before 2005. Warming associated with anthropogenic climate change has seen Australian annual mean temperatures increase by over one degree since 1910. Most of this warming has occurred since 1950.

2019 was also the driest year on record for Australia at 277.6 mm, well below the previous record in 1902 (previous lowest was 314.5 mm). Nationally-averaged rainfall for 2019 was 40% below the 1961–1990 average of 465.2 mm. The national rainfall dataset commences in 1900. Although every period of rainfall deficiency is different, the extraordinarily low rainfall experienced this year has been comparable to that seen in the driest periods in Australia's recorded history, including the Federation Drought and the Millenium Drought.

A very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was one of the main influences on Australia's climate during 2019, and contributed to very low rainfall across Australia. The year commenced with significant rainfall deficiencies already in place across large areas of eastern Australia. Low rainfall during 2019 resulted in increased severity of rainfall deficiencies across New South Wales and Queensland, parts of southeastern Australia, and the South West Land Division in Western Australia.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation remained neutral throughout 2019.

Annual mean temperatures for 2019 were above average for nearly all of Australia, and highest on record for a large area of northern and eastern New South Wales, southeast Queensland, most of Western Australia extending from the Pilbara coast to northwest South Australia, and for an area of the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory. It was the warmest year on record for New South Wales and Western Australia as a whole, and amongst the ten warmest years for the Northern Territory, Queensland, Victoria, and South Australia.

2019 Australian rainfall decile map
2019 annual rainfall compared to historical rainfall observations. About deciles.
Rainfall for the year was below to very much below average over most of Australia. Much of northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland, pastoral South Australia, the central and southern Northern Territory, and southeastern Western Australia received their lowest annual totals on record. Annual rainfall was above average across parts of Queensland's northwest and northern tropics, mostly as a result of very much above average rainfall during the first quarter of the year.

The second half of the year was particularly dry across most of the southern half of Australia, and followed several years of below average rainfall over parts of Queensland and New South Wales. Warm and windy conditions during spring to early summer led to repeated periods of severe fire weather, with very large bushfires affecting eastern Australia from September, with many fires continuing to burn after the end of the year.
All capital cities were warmer and drier than average in 2019.

Daytime temperatures were especially warm, with Sydney, Canberra, Brisbane, and Hobart all observing their highest annual mean maximum temperature on record. Perth was equal-warmest and Darwin the second-warmest. While not in the top ten, Melbourne also had warmer than average days.

All of the capital cites, except Darwin and Perth, observed warmer than average annual mean minimum temperatures, though none set a new record. For Darwin and Perth the annual mean minimum temperature was close to average.

Brisbane and Canberra had their highest annual mean temperature on record, and all other capital cities were warmer than average overall. Hobart and Sydney had their second-warmest annual mean temperature.

Rainfall was below average in all the capital cities. Each city, except Sydney, had rainfall totals in the driest 10% of years. Sydney had many months with below-average rainfall, but also some wet months; its annual total rainfall was in the driest 15% of years. Darwin had its seventh-driest wet season over 2018–19, and a late start to the 2019–20 wet season.'


Personal opinions may of course differ, and other sources may disagree with Australia's scientists, however they are all, like G. E. Morton, plainly WRONG!

Just to indulge in a little role reversal:

Despite what you may have read - eg:

https://time.com/5804562/coronavirus-fears-gun-sales/

'Gun sales generally rise in an election year, as they did in 2016. But this past January and February have outpaced 2016 by nearly 350,000.'

- this does not mean that because of Corona virus, the US suddenly has a gun problem. People in the US have always had guns.

More from the Time article:

'Ed Turner, who owns Ed’s Public Safety in Stockbridge, Georgia, said his shop was not seeing people “flailing their arms screaming it’s the end of the world,” but sales were up five times the usual volume. “Worst day on the stock market since 1987 and shelves getting bare apparently have got everyone’s attention,” he said.

In the 27 years he’s been in business, he said, “I’ve never seen it like this. … This is self-preservation. This is panic. This is ‘I won’t be able to protect my family from the hordes and the walking dead.”'

So you see its not the end of the world.

Robert66 wrote: ↑March 29th, 2020, 4:35 pm G. E. Morton wrote: 'Australia's climate this year is not perceptibly different from last year, or the year before, or for the prior 10 years'.

This is wrong . . .

. . . Personal opinions may of course differ, and other sources may disagree with Australia's scientists, however they are all, like G. E. Morton, plainly WRONG!

Methinks you haven't paid attention to the point of contention here, which is whether Oz's bad 2019 fire season was due to "climate change." It was not whether Australia has experienced warming since 1900.

You confirm my statement (quoted above) with your own source:

"The mean temperature for the 10 years from 2010 to 2019 was the highest on record, at 0.86 °C above average, and 0.31 °C warmer than the 10 years 2000–2009. All the years since 2013 have been amongst the ten warmest on record for Australia. Of the ten warmest years, only one (1998) occurred before 2005."

I said that Oz's summer temps last year were not perceptibly different from those of the prior 10 years. Not from 1900 temps. Yet, during that 10-year period, Australia had below average bushfire losses. So you need to look elsewhere for the explanation of 2019's fires.

The prior decade was also well above average for the twentieth century.

GEM, you really do have no idea what you are talking about. Better to stick to things you know - like your own home. From thousands of miles away you cherrypick the meanest possible data set to push an absurd climate denial stance. You should tell the people of Tuvalu how water levels aren't rising while you are at it.

Greta wrote: ↑March 29th, 2020, 8:08 pm The prior decade was also well above average for the twentieth century.

What was well above average? Not bush fires.

Until 2019, the extent of fires (# hectares burned) was below average.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... _Australia

GEM, you really do have no idea what you are talking about. Better to stick to things you know - like your own home. From thousands of miles away you cherrypick the meanest possible data set to push an absurd climate denial stance. You should tell the people of Tuvalu how water levels aren't rising while you are at it.

Do you have different data set? Please share it.

"Until 2019, the extent of fires (# hectares burned) was below average."

For the 10 years prior to 2019.

Those fires you have attemped to reference were in vast swathed of scantily forested outback. The forest and ecosystem losses of these fires dwarfed all others in Australia's history. This was productive land lost, not uninhabited desert lands. This actually mattered. And it was unprecedented in the east.

Do your own research. It's all there. Your claims are so preposterous that they are unworthy of effort.

Greta wrote: ↑March 29th, 2020, 11:13 pm Those fires you have attemped to reference were in vast swathed of scantily forested outback. The forest and ecosystem losses of these fires dwarfed all others in Australia's history. This was productive land lost, not uninhabited desert lands. This actually mattered. And it was unprecedented in the east.

Do your own research. It's all there. Your claims are so preposterous that they are unworthy of effort.

You're evading the issue, Greta. I said that temps were not appreciably higher in 2019 than they have been over the last 10 years. But over that period (until last year) bush fire losses, as measured by acreage burned, has been below average. That includes NSW and Victoria.

"Climate change" didn't start last year. And of course, what "matters" to people doesn't matter at all to the climate.

Just wondering how a year could be the 'warmest on record' and also 'not perceptibly different'?

Robert66 wrote: ↑March 30th, 2020, 2:32 pm Just wondering how a year could be the 'warmest on record' and also 'not perceptibly different'?

The difference between 2019 and 2013 is 0.32C. Between 2019 and 2018 is 0.38C. Would that be perceptible to you?

GE Morton wrote: ↑March 30th, 2020, 8:45 am

Greta wrote: ↑March 29th, 2020, 11:13 pm Those fires you have attemped to reference were in vast swathed of scantily forested outback. The forest and ecosystem losses of these fires dwarfed all others in Australia's history. This was productive land lost, not uninhabited desert lands. This actually mattered. And it was unprecedented in the east.

Do your own research. It's all there. Your claims are so preposterous that they are unworthy of effort.

You're evading the issue, Greta. I said that temps were not appreciably higher in 2019 than they have been over the last 10 years. But over that period (until last year) bush fire losses, as measured by acreage burned, has been below average. That includes NSW and Victoria.

"Climate change" didn't start last year. And of course, what "matters" to people doesn't matter at all to the climate.

Evading the issue, my far @rse.

What is wrong with you? I live here and I am old and have not seen anything even remotely like this. I experienced it while you balle denialism from afar. People I know lost their homes. It was by far the most destructive fire in Australia's modern history. The evidence is there for thos who will see.

And you are complaining because not every single year rises in temps uniformly. You must have seen numerous warming charts and the links with atmospheric CO2 but still ignore the evidence. Sorry, you are not up to this debate (which has nothing to do with guns anyway).

Greta wrote: ↑March 30th, 2020, 8:57 pm
What is wrong with you? I live here and I am old and have not seen anything even remotely like this. I experienced it while you balle denialism from afar. People I know lost their homes. It was by far the most destructive fire in Australia's modern history. The evidence is there for thos who will see.

The destructiveness of a fire, like that of a hurricane, is unrelated to the frequency or severity of those events. It is a function of how much human construction is in its path.

And you are complaining because not every single year rises in temps uniformly. You must have seen numerous warming charts and the links with atmospheric CO2 but still ignore the evidence. Sorry, you are not up to this debate (which has nothing to do with guns anyway).

I said absolutely nothing about rising temps, and ignored nothing. I said that while the last decade has been the warmest on record in Oz, that bushfires in that period, until last year, were below average, in terms of acreage burned.

You're right that last year's fires were the worst in recent history. But not over Australia's entire history. The fact is that Australia has a very bad fire season every few decades.

The fire was the worst ever - in Australia's modern history. This should not be minimised by comparing with less destructive fires of the past, burning out thinly forested outback areas. Rainforests in the east that had never known bushfire before were burnt out for the first time. It's not just heat, but rainfall. Drought hit most areas after a wet year in 2016. And the last decade has been very hot.

We can expect more cold snaps for while, now that ice at the poles is melting at a record rate. All that cold water circulating around must make a difference for a while.

'The difference between 2019 and 2013 is 0.32C. Between 2019 and 2018 is 0.38C. Would that be perceptible to you?'

I don't think my perception is the important factor in all of this, GE. We have had thermometers for over 300 years, thanks to Herr Fahrenheit.

I will say, as an outdoor worker doing strenuous physical labour, that it DOES feel as though it is getting hotter where I am, year on year just as the records confirm. And the most recent drought was "off the charts". At my parents' place, 100+ year old Nerium oleanders died despite the waterings they were given. These are extremely drought-tolerant plants - usually. Towns ran out of water. In discussions about the drought and fires, the word "unprecedented" was commonly, and correctly used eg in the context of 80 metre high walls of flame bearing down on fire workers.