Pattern-chaser wrote: ↑August 22nd, 2023, 9:43 am
We examine what evidence there is, and we come to a conclusion: 1. We accept the idea, maybe tentatively; 2. we place the idea back onto the 'maybe' pile, as there is insufficient reason to reach a conclusion; 3. we reject the idea, and place it on the 'discarded' pile. But the examination, and any accompanying analysis (etc), are the same in all cases...
...So what is the logical reason that allows us to take step 3 with much less reason than taking step 1? I don't think there is one. And yet I have seen, on philosophy forums and elsewhere, posters saying things like "this is obvious rubbish"; "this problem is not worthy of our attention"; "no sane person would believe such rot"
Good_Egg wrote: ↑August 26th, 2023, 3:15 am
These utterances do not sound to me like someone calmly and logically giving reasons for their dismissal of an idea.
Agreed.
Good_Egg wrote: ↑August 26th, 2023, 3:15 am
I suspect that we do not have a single undifferentiated Maybe pile, but a set of them ranked by some notion of likelihood.
With this, I think I disagree. I disagree for a very specific reason, and it's nothing
directly to do with our Maybe pile. It's about likelihood and probability. Statistics, correctly applied, is a very powerful tool. But there is always the chimera of "lies, damned lies, and statistics", and with good reason. Statistics can be, and often are, used to mislead and confuse. Sometimes this is deliberate, but many times it is genuinely inadvertent.
We live in a world rife with uncertainty, or
so it seems to us. We try to limit or minimise that uncertainty, so that we can better predict the future, to see what might be coming, and prepare for it. And so we guess. Given the minimal or non-existent evidence we have to go on, our guesses are often remarkably effective. But that's another matter.
In the manner of humans, we habitually express our guesses in words that suggest more confidence, more certainty, than we actually have. We exaggerate for 'effect'. And our assignment of "likelihood" comes under that category. Sometimes we go farther, and claim "probability", as though we have solid statistics to back us up (when we don't).
You mention ranking the Maybe pile according to "likelihood", but how do we know how likely these things are? Guesswork, nothing more. Many/most things on the Maybe pile have not yet been examined, so we don't know their likelihood. Even those that have previously been examined have been returned to the Maybe pile, lacking the evidence necessary to reach a conclusion. So we probably don't know their likelihood either. So it seems to me that your idea of ranking these ideas, very sensible-seeming at first, is not actually possible or practical.