Lagayscienza wrote: ↑October 28th, 2023, 10:31 pm
I find it strange how some people think that it's up to those who dispute a claim to disprove a negative. For example, I don't believe claims such as "there is a pink teapot in orbit around Mars". I believe for many sound reasons that this claim is vanishingly unlikely to be true. And if someone then turns around and says, but you cannot prove it's not true, I don't feel it's up to me to prove it's not true. It's up to the person making the extraordinary claim to provide evidence for it. Saying simply that nobody cannot prove it is not true, is no argument in favor of the claim, and no reason for agnosticism on the issue. As I see it, it's the same for claims about gods, fairies, ESP, astrology, etcetera. If people want to convince others of the likely truth of such extraordinary claims the best way to do so is to provide evidence for them. They are never able to do so because there is no such evidence, and just saying, well, you cannot prove fairies are not true, is no argument at all. It's just a philosophically bad move. And it's childish.
There's a lot to unravel here, but there are several strands that can be identified and discussed. Perhaps the most fundamental one is binary thinking? You seem to think that if you do not "believe" (i.e. accept) something, you must reject it, or
vice versa. Not so.
You claim a commitment to logic, but seem unwilling to follow it. If you would like to determine whether something is true or false, but have no logically-sufficient reason to justify either conclusion — perhaps because of a lack of evidence? That's the usual reason — then you must accept a third possibility: "maybe"/"unresolved"/"don't know".
And so, if we apply logic — and let's apply no other tool but logic, for simplicity and clarity — to "there is a pink teapot in orbit around Mars", we discover that we have no logically-sufficient reason to
dismiss it. But that does not mean that we must
accept it. The third option now comes into play: the matter is unresolved, maybe even unresolvable. To
accept would be illogical (i.e. not in accord with the rules of logic). To
reject would be illogical (i.e. not in accord with the rules of logic). If we accept and abide by the rules of logic, we are compelled
not to reach a conclusion, because there is no logically-sufficient reason to do so.
The practical way to deal with all this is to accept the above, but not to feel compelled to deal with a problem that holds less interest for us than other problems do. There are a near-infinite number of 'maybes' that we could choose to consider, and only a few philosophers or scientists to consider them, it doesn't really matter which of them we choose to examine. We have to apply 'common sense'.
So I agree with you, that the pink teapot idea doesn't interest me. And so I choose to set it aside, in favour of ideas that interest me more. But, if I am to remain in accordance with logic, I may not
reject it, but only set it aside, and put it back on the Maybe pile, where it should probably remain, gathering dust.
Another strand we could consider is likelihood, or probability, if we formalise our use of a statistical vocabulary. You happily claim that some things are unlikely/improbable — "vanishingly unlikely" — when you have no means or technique that might justify such a conclusion. And again, we return to conclusions reached without logical justification. Without evidence, logic tells us there is no valid argument that could lead to a logically-valid conclusion. And statistics can't work in the absence of data (evidence).
Lagayscienza wrote: ↑October 28th, 2023, 10:31 pm
Saying simply that nobody cannot prove it is not true, is no argument in favor of the claim, and no reason for agnosticism on the issue.
The first part is correct; the latter part is not. Agnosticism is the Maybe option, it neither accepts nor rejects. It is the only conclusion that is in accord with logic, when there is no valid argument that would allow a firmer conclusion. And so, in the final words of your sentence, "there is *every* reason for agnosticism on the issue"