Belindi wrote: ↑September 30th, 2018, 12:20 pm
Reliable is relative to a criterion of reliability. For a few hundred years we have been subjecting criteria to reason and scientific knowledge.
Yes. For A to be declared a
cause of B, B must follow
every occurrence of A (
ceteris paribus). If B does not follow A 100% of the time you have only a correlation, not causation. A strong correlation may well point to a cause, but as long as it is less than 100% there is some factor missing from the causal complex.
Causes may be complex, of course. I.e., (A+B+C) may be the cause of D. If any of the components of the complex are missing, D may not occur (it may still occur, because there may be other causes of D apart from that complex).
Previously observed behaviour is an indication of personality from the point of view of commonsense and from psychology.
I agree. As I said above, if Alfie knows Bruno well he will be able to predict his behavior quite reliably in some situations (because he has observed Bruno's behavior previously in similar situations). That is not a theoretical prediction, however.
If motives are "internal" , how does this indicate that motives are not caused? An agent's interests are caused by his native or acquired culture , his personal memories, his training , socialisation and formal education, his genetic inheritance, and accidents of health and other ephemeral circumstances. All of those count as causes whether or not they are known, irrational, or predictable . . . On a more general note, apart from subatomic events, do you believe in uncaused events? For it would seem that you do!
I prefer to think there are no uncaused events, even subatomic ones. I agree with Einstein ("God does not play dice with the universe"). I may well be wrong about that, but I'm willing to concede that human behavior is ultimately deterministic, that interests are the causal results of an enormously complex interaction of hundreds or even thousands of genetic and environmental variables --- so complex that they will never be unraveled for any person. And as with subatomic events, some true randomness may be involved as well. But until they are unraveled sufficiently to predict at least some of Alfie's behavior with 100% reliability, one cannot say that X is the cause of those behaviors.