Greta wrote: ↑December 24th, 2017, 4:57 pm
Sorry, but the evidence is 100% with my view. The facts are there - 3.8b years ago the Earth consisted of rocks, chemicals the the first microbes. It never fallen back into that state and regression has always been followed up by, not just progress, but progress at an unprecedented rate. So the conservative view is to expect some continuation of civilisation's trends towards institutions and collective intelligence.
Nope, sorry, but you have 0% evidence. The facts of the natural history (if we assume it's appropriate to call it history) of inorganic, lifeless systems, are the facts of predominantly deterministic closed systems, in which causal regularities are observable and predictable in accord with the underlying material laws (thermodynamics, movement, etc.). To apply the same concept to living systems is what is known as naturalistic determinism, but the processes involved in the behavior of organic matter are mostly non-deterministic. And particularly, when we talk about the more complex forms (where something like civilizations can emerge), the intrinsic properties of rocks and chemicals alone are not sufficient to explain their behavior, in other words, these biological forms are not reducible to such rocks and chemicals.
Greta wrote: ↑December 24th, 2017, 4:57 pm
This is uncertain in the same way as a child is not guaranteed to live to an adulthood. That is, failing disaster, progress is inevitable. Any other view is basically emotion-driven woo wrapped in rationalist clothing. There is zero difference between emotion-driven pessimistic projections of the future and emotion-driven optimistic views of a loving anthropocentric God. Each time, it's emotions rather than reason that drives the opinions.
So, failing disaster, progress is inevitable? But isn't disaster in the same path of progress? And I don't buy the simplistic forced alternatives: is either an optimistic technological heaven (noticeable, not different from the heavenly worlds of godly creatures) or a pessimistic dystopia. Why? Why is the future closed to these predetermined options? Why can it be what we build from the present conditions, given the present conditions?
Greta wrote: ↑December 24th, 2017, 4:57 pm
Part of this negativist faux-logical fantasy is the unfounded assumption that the fates of humans will be uniform, despite the clear evidence of history.
The evidence of human history can only show what has happened, and what we can do at the present time with it. It does not show what inexorably will happen, as if it were a movie to watch passively. The evidence shows that what happens is what humans actively participate in doing. They have the leading role in the movie and it unfolds unpredictably.
Greta wrote: ↑December 24th, 2017, 4:57 pmOnly emotions could bring a person to disregard billions of years of natural history and thousands of years of human social history to believe that the troubles of the unfortunate will cause civilisation per se to crumble, as though Buffet's and Trump's fates are tied to those in Sudan. Plenty of humanity is doing better than at any time in history. I would say the fates of Trump and the starving in Sudan are about as tethered as those between cows and connoisseurs of steak - there is a connection, but for only one party is that connection at all serious.
Civilizations, however, have crumbled. Repeatedly, since there have been civilizations. They can last thousands of years, but nevertheless, change, evolve, transform into something else. What state is our current civilization moving into? We have some clues, some evidence of how it is doing now and where it might be going to. Is that already fixed, predetermined? Are we doomed? Or, are we headed to a future of unprecedented social success? We can say none of the above, as nothing is guaranteed, but we can say that right now we're not not were we would like to be in terms of social well-being, despite the fact that since almost a century ago our material problems in relation to access and exploitation of resources had been technically solved. History shows, I repeat, that technology has not been the holy grail of social success. We can achieve social success, it's in our hands, but not in the AI fantasies.
Greta wrote: ↑December 24th, 2017, 4:57 pm
In other words, the nature of gods is changing. For the sake of logic and accuracy we need to parse the various gods that people believe in. Those who see God as the ground of being are closer to secularists than to their literalist fundamentalist brethren.
There are no gods and no nature of gods. There are projections of human desires and explanations of the real that have taken the shape of socially-constructed myths about spiritual realms. We know those were superstitions and we should move forward without them. Trying to rescue those superstitions, now disguised as other mysterious forces blending in the natural world, is truly moving backwards.
Greta wrote: ↑December 24th, 2017, 4:57 pm
Whatever, humans have seen potentials, and these may be dressed in a deity's finery or seen through a scientific futurist's eye; the difference is shrinking.
The problem is: futurists usually are not scientifically-minded, but sci-fi minded.